Thursday, August 16, 2007
Death of a Stock Market
Well I was watching the news and the Stock market is in big trouble, and it is looking like it is going to be a big problem I am not big on the stock market. I can't say that I know much on this topic, but I do know the effects of a crash last time the market crashed it was the beggining of the Depression, which I might add was world wide. The world and the U.S. in particularly is going some stuff right now and with a depression equal in strenght to our current economy is could prove to be quite a problem. I don't know what to say about this really so What I would like is for you all to inform me on this topic if you will.
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Well, there was the crash in 1986, but the market still finished up on the year. During the 1990s, when the Dow was streaking toward ten digits, a lot of people were underemployed. Statistically, this made it seem as though people were working again. But in reality, they were working themselves into poverty.
The worse recession I saw in my lifetime was between 1978-1982, and in those days there was no crash.
The crash of 1929 devastated a lot of people because of over-the-top margins.
What's a margin (I had to say this, didn't I?)
Say you want to buy a thousand dollars worth of stock in 1929, but you only have 200 bucks. No problem. You can buy on twenty percent margin.
Say the thousand dollar represents a thousand shares of a company. If the price goes up a quarter of a percent, you've made twenty-five dollars. If it goes down the same amount, you've lost twenty-five.
But suppose you bought the stock while it's at its peak. It goes down two whole points in a matter of an hour. You're now down 200 dollars.
What happens next? The Exchange gives you a margin call, which means that the two hundred bucks you put up is now completely gone, and they're now kicking you out of the game. In effect, you own nothing and you're out the two hundred.
It could be worse. The market could have gone down three points. The exchange wouldn't just shut you down, now, but they would demand you fork over an additional $100.
Rampant overspeculation caused the 1929 crash, but margin did it's share of damage. Ordinary people, those who couldn't afford to lose, bought on margin. They got wiped out, because almost all of them bought stocks at inflated prices.
There are some safeguards today that would prevent that kind of catastrophe. First of all, there's a fifty percent margin in the stock market (although only 5% in the commodities market). Then too, the SEC will issue limit ups and limit downs, so that if a stock price rises, or falls sharply within a short period of time, the Commission will stop trading until it can find out what's driving the price change.
And what does this have to do with us, you ask? Not much, really, unless you actually own stock. I would say the dot-com bubble was the worst Wall Street fiasco of recent history. A temprorary dip, no matter how big, just means that the fat cats have cleared out a lot of suckers--as with the aforementioned dot.com thing.
It's called keeping the rich afloat. It has nothing to do with us.
X-Dell said: A temprorary dip, no matter how big, just means that the fat cats have cleared out a lot of suckers--as with the aforementioned dot.com thing.
His analysis was spot on, as was this statement above. Unless you've had extensive, and I do mean extensive, training from a good professional, your money will do better if you play Vegas. The Pro's start slobbering when they see "new meat" enter the market. If you have money to invest, put it in one of those unglamorous, boring investment funds that never make the news, but also hardly never get wiped out. they show a profit for you more often than they do a loss.
Even for the Pro's, the market is still a blackjack table. It's a guess and a prayer, and that's on the good days.:)
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